Marin Monthly Market Snapshot | April 2017

April marked the fifth month in a row that equity values increased to new highs.  All told, the S&P 500 has rallied 11.6% since November 2016. That represents the second-best performance since an 18% surge under President Kennedy in 1961. Strong consumer and business sentiment combined with continued hope Congress will deliver on the President’s pro-business agenda continues to fuel the positive market momentum.

April also marked the introduction of a second and new story line into the marketplace. Some are taking note that while the stock market is hitting record highs because of consumer sentiment, actual consumer spending figures are down significantly and the bond market appears to be reflecting these growth concerns in the long end of the yield curve. For example, the Fed has raised rates twice in the past six months but the 10-Year Treasury note ended the month 11 basis points below where it began.  Also, the Government announced the first quarter estimate of GDP fell to 0.7%, below the 1.1% expected and well below the 2.1% recorded in the last quarter of 2016.

But doubters should be mindful, the robust increase in Q1 capital investment and the tight job market (4.5% unemployment) offer a strong argument that we’re more likely to see GDP around 2% before witnessing any slowdown.

In Marin County, the Single Family Home market had healthy April figures. With listing season underway, Percentage of Homes in Contract and Number of Homes Sold were up from March levels while inventory decreased, as did days on market. Average Price Sold had a significant decrease of 11%, compared to March. This decrease is due to a few high priced home sales in March; $14.64M in Belvedere, $9.5M in Bolinas, and $8.25M in Tiburon. Most notable are the year-to-date similarities of both the Number of Homes Sold (up 3%) and Average Sale Price (up 1%).

Number of Homes Sold

With 202 sold, Marin Single Family Home sales were up 53% from March, and up 3% compared to the same month last year. Most Single Family Homes sold in April were in the price range of $1-2 million.

Average Price Sold

The Average Sale Price of Marin Single Family Homes decreased significantly by 11% in April compared to March, at $1,607,803 and $1,826,554, respectively. This is due to a few high priced home sales in March; $14.64M in Belvedere, $9.5M in Bolinas, and $8.25M in Tiburon. Compared to the same month last year, the Average Sale Price remains relatively unchanged, up 1%.

Home Sales by Area

San Rafael, Novato and Mill Valley continue to see the highest Number of Homes Sold at 48, 46 and 28, respectively. San Anselmo had a notable number of homes sold at 16, as did Kentfield and Tiburon, with 11 each for the period.

In Contract by Area

Greenbrae had 67% of Homes in Contract in April, followed by Corte Madera (57%) and Novato (51%). Five cities had between 40% and 50% of Homes in Contract. In contrast, less active markets were West Marin (7%) and Belvedere (10%).

Sales by Price Point

The highest number of homes both available (110) and sold (94), were between $1-2 million. There were 50 homes sold between $750,000 and $1 million, almost double the number sold in March, while 22 homes sold in the $2-3 million price range. A notable 15 homes sold between $3-4 million. There were only 7 homes sold at $4 million or higher.